As for the future, our task is not to forecast it, but to enable it
Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
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Systemdenken ist nötig

Chaos

Summary

The world is so interconnected that we do no longer understand it

Action

You are a giant staying in the midst of a sea bay and you play making waves. You see the waves go away: Your world is foreseeable! How nice!

And then, you see the waves come back. They've hit the shore who throws them back in the opposite direction.

Reaction

This nerves you, you make stronger waves to throw back these nasty waves which come back to you and which splash you.

This works more or less, until the strengthened waves also come back, and strengthened! And waves become so strong that the thrown-back waves are themselves thrown back a second or even third time when they hit the opposite coast!

Overreaction

You get tired making even stronger waves, unfortunately they too come back after a short delay once again strengthened.

It's no longer nice at all anymore ! The giant you are is faced with itself ! Or more precisely, with consequences of it's own deeds!

Let's hope the giant will notice it !

Systemdenken ist nötig

The interconnected world

You are experiencing the multiple interconnection of the modern world, the feedbacks induced directly or indirectly through your own deeds !

And through the deeds of others

Welcome to the unforeseeable modern world with it's crashes, it's Keynesian politics and others, its ecological catastrophes, it's Black Swans but  also new solutions

We need to need to accept our relative powerlessness, we are not able to predict the future. We will discuss Black Swans .

Additional comment

The giant metaphor should detailed. Mankind is not aware of its ever increasing power. Fukushima I, but also the Deep Water Horizon BP-oil spill in the mexican gulf show, if necessary, that mankind has leveraged such a power that it can destroy itself. And this, without using it's arms! Mankind has more and more power, and is not aware of it!

If you have difficulties imaging yourself as a giant, you can also see yourself as making waves in a bathtub. The major factor is the relative size and force of the person acting compared to the size of the environment he/she is evolving in!