As for the future, our task is not to forecast it, but to enable it
Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
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According to a well established mythos, the human mind would be rational in face of decisions implying risks. This is especially wrong when facing important risks.

You will find here notes relative to three research fields with respect to this topic:

  • The prospect theory of Daniel Kahneman, 2002 Nobel Price laureate in economics, which studies in depth the behavior of a more or less single person with respect to risks.
  • The GroupThink theory elaborated by Irving Janis which studies mankind when evolving in groups.
  • Finally the Black Swans theory of Nassim Nicholas Taleb documents that we are unable to replace ourselves in the attitude we had before an unexpected event, the black swan. And it is this impossibility of ourselves to replace ourselves in our past attitude, to evaluate the quality of our past evaluations, which hinders us to appreciate the quality of our past previsions, and hence to foresee at least part of the future ...